February 04, 2005
National Intelligence Council's 2020 project
Two things here. First, Mapping the Global Future, a report on a project geared toward looking at the world in 2020. The full document is available free as web pages or a PDF and is lengthy, solid and pretty detailed. It includes four possible scenarios, which it emphasises aren't exhaustive or mutually exclusive:
- Davos World provides an illustration of how robust economic growth, led by China and India, over the next 15 years could reshape the globalization process
here's another way of looking at it:
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050126-wed.html
My group developed a scenario analysis framework (the type made famous by my colleague Eric Best), with the degree of America centricity on one axis and the reaction to it -- either more cooperation among countries or less cooperation -- on the other axis. The four possibilities generated very different worlds...