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Resources: Forecasts/Scenarios
February 04, 2005
25 year prediction timeline

A timeline of over 500 predictions of events over the next 25 years.

The future of the Internet: An American survey

The Pew Internet & American Life Project asked over a thousand internet "experts" about their views on the net's future. The full report is available free online.

February 03, 2005
How to leave this universe before it dies

An article from 'Prospect' describing different ways we may be able to escape this universe.

November 09, 2004
George W. Bush, dead at 72

In 2018 Greil Marcus has written an obituary of George W. Bush.

Cities of Tomorrow

A collection of links to past visions of future cities and buildings.

World population could end up between 2.3 billion and 36.4 billion

A UN report looks at projections for the world population over the next 300 years.

October 04, 2004
James Kunstler's Clusterfuck Nation Manifesto

James Kunstler's interesting thoughts on what America will be like when oil prices climb high enough to disrupt the current way of life.

September 25, 2004
Guardian's 2020 supplements URL

Matt found the URL for the Guardian's three looking-ahead mini-mags.

February 26, 2004
Twisting a scenario into certainty

The Observer, unsurprisingly, turns a speculative forecast into a terrifying certainty.

February 08, 2004
Shell's scenarios

Matt Locke's been doing scenario stuff with Shell.

October 20, 2003
David Weinberger on weblogging and PopTech

David Weinberger on the future of weblogging and many notes from PopTech.

September 22, 2003
Voting on UK TV's future

Attendees of a Royal Television Society gathering voted on the most likely scenario for TV in 2010.

Another Matt's scenarios

It's Matt Locke's turn to create some mini-scenarios.

September 16, 2003
Reversing the trend of increasingly apathetic voters

Four interesting ideas for reversing the trend of declining votes, nicely executed.

Matt's 2013 snapshots

Matt Jones has written has written some mini scenarios for the BBC about technology in 2013 and put four of them online. They're nicely done, but within a disappointingly constrained brief - technology alone just isn't that interesting.

September 09, 2003
The future's here

Harper's weekly review reads like a wholly unbelievable scenario of some future disaster-filled world.

July 02, 2003
Creating scenarios from thin air

The Guardian has an article titled 'A vision of Britain in 2020: power cuts and the 3-day week,' outlining an Institution of Civil Engineers (ICE) report. From the article it sounds like one of two things happened. Maybe ICE produced...

June 15, 2003
Will humanity survive the century?

Oliver Morton reviews Martin Rees' book 'Our Final Century.' Or 'Our Final Hour' if you're in the obviously more fearful US.

March 27, 2003
Wired's look at 2013

Wired is ten years old this month (does that make you feel old?). The current issue contains several articles written as though its 2013; basically scenarios. (Sorry for the lack of updates. I've been trying to get on top of...

February 05, 2003
A 100 year old vision of a future London

Ford Madox Ford's view of a potential London featuring "portable houses, [and] masked and numbered inhabitants."

December 05, 2002
BBC's Book of the Future

If I had time I'd spend more time looking at this project at the BBC and make some comments. It looks interesting, but I'm too busy and my computer at home has been broken for a while now. Sorry. Anyway,...

November 09, 2002
28 Days Later

Continuing the 'future images of London' theme, I saw 28 Days Later today because some friends recommended it. Set in Britain after a virus is released from a research lab, the scenes of a deserted London are chillingly eerie, particularly...

November 07, 2002
A future view of London

The current issue of MacUser UK has a fantastic cover image: a doctored photo taken from the London Eye with impossibly tall sci-fi skyscrapers towering over Westminster. It's brilliantly done and is much more evocative than a written description of...

July 22, 2002
WorldView 2002: The Next Thousand Years

The first session I attended today was Joseph "Crotchety Old Man" Coates's talk "The Next Thousand Years." It wasn't exciting or big on laughs, but it was still refreshing to hear thoughts about such a long-term future when the rest...

July 12, 2002
When predictions go bad

A light-hearted look at how predictions about the future are invariably wrong. Something any futurist worth their salt acknowledges of course. (via SciTech Daily)...

June 10, 2002
Future fictional populations

Lionel Shriver, an American writer, looks at how novelists have dealt with differing predictions of population change: virii, natural disasters, war or population explosion. (via Arts & Letters Daily)...

May 31, 2002
The global environment over the next 30 years

I've been reading the United Nations Environment Programme's Global Environment Outlook 3 which was released last week. It looks at the state of our world right now and what it might be over the next thirty years (the summary is...

May 05, 2002
Long bets

Finally got round to the current issue of Wired which includes an interesting article about Long Bets, set up by Stewart Brand and co, which encourages people to make long-term forecasts and bet US$1,000+ on their argument. Money is kept...

February 09, 2002
Ian Pearson's 20 years of predictions

I missed this a couple of weeks back. BT's futurist, Ian Pearson, keeps a timeline of developments expected to occur over the next twenty years. Here he elaborates on many of these, which are mainly technological. It's basically a list...

January 15, 2002
E.O. Wilson on humanity's future

An interview with the sociobiologist on what the long-term future holds for humanity and the rest of the planet. He's optimistic that we'll collectively see sense before it's too late: "I think people are smart enough to act in the...

December 20, 2001
In 2101: Three Stories by Young People

Very short pieces by children who were asked to write something about the world in one hundred years time. Mostly sweet rather than illuminating. "I wish there was stunt bikes for younger children."...

November 28, 2001
Economist/Shell 2050 essay competition winner

The winning essay from the competition is in the form of a letter from a Bangladeshi to an American. I must admit that it's rather dull to read. If I had to come up with a stereotypical letter from the...

May 14, 2001
Miracles of the Year 2000

An article written in 1950 about what the world will be like in the year 2000. Obviously amusing. (via Haddock)...

March 05, 2001
Future Feed Forward

I've been meaning to post this for months. A series of news stories from the distant future which you can also have sent via email. Usually funny, cynical and thought-provoking jabs at the way society could be progressing. (via Nettime)...

The future of the information revolution

A RAND report on the Net twenty years out, and particularly America's place within it: "American ideals, with modest refinements, would write the constitution of a global civil society, even as the American state itself would lose its primacy." (via...

February 02, 2001
Past visions of the future

A brief look at past visions of the future that never quite happened: The House of Tomorrow, The Dymaxion Car, The City of the Future, The Lustron and The House of the Future. (via Telecom-Cities)...

January 14, 2001
Global Trends 2015

Subtitled "A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts" this is the USA's National Intelligence Council's look at what the world may be like in 2015, and the role of the United States within it. One criticism could be that...

December 30, 2000
Arthur C. Clarke looks ahead 1000 years

The author looks at a few potential wildcards, why we should be exploring space, and more....

September 27, 2000
Discover magazine on 2020

A selection of features about the world twenty years hence, such as 'What You'll Need to Know in 2020 That You Don't Know Now' and '20 Ideas That Will Rule Research in the Next 20 Years.'...

September 07, 2000
Scenarios from Eno World readers

A page containing a few short ideas for scenarios, inspired by Eno's Unthinkable Futures so they tend to be interesting far-out ideas. Users can add their own ideas to the page. (via Gorjuss)...

Brian Eno's Unthinkable Futures

This page is just an excerpt from the full article (in Whole Earth Review, Summer 1993) that listed 80 sentence-long "unthinkable futures" thought up by Brian Eno (a musician, producer, artist, lecturer, etc.). Judging from the few listed here, I...

August 23, 2000
The computer of 2010

Forbes ASAP teams up with frogdesign to look at how a computer might function and look in ten years. (via Slashdot)...

August 04, 2000
The Daytopia Fragments

A strange but fascinating site. It purports to be "a selection of material initially prepared for the catalogue of the Great Daytopia Exhibition scheduled for 2296 but abandoned early in 2295 after funding was withdrawn." Art, architecture, social customs, education,...

August 01, 2000
Scenarios for 2015 from the UK government's Future Unit

Four scenarios from a report called 'Work in the Knowledge Driven Economy' produced by the Department of Trade and Industry. However, of the four, only the most optimistic two were presented to ministers and these are almost polar opposites: one...

July 06, 2000
The Next 20 Years

An annual series of lectures and discussions looking at the the world twenty years hence, taking place in America and London....

Life in 2020

A report from a Next Twenty Years discussion, with Paul Saffo and others imagining what technology will be like in 2020 and how society will cope. (via Matt Jones)...

June 12, 2000
Technology in 2010

The New York Times has a large section on different technologies we can expect in the future: 'The Blind Date Who Is Your Destiny,' 'The Genetic Report Card That Will Tell You If Your Embryo Will Get Prostate Cancer,' 'The...

May 19, 2000
Collision - Post Conference - Dan Sturges

Thoughts about the kinds of vehicles we might see in the future, and how usage patterns could change....

March 04, 2000
Bruce Sterling on 2035

An interesting scenario, looking back on the lead up to 2035. "Okay, here's my bottom line: By your standards, my world is fantastically advanced, but it's also gray, sagging, increasingly conservative, and visibly running out of steam." (via Slashdot)...

March 01, 2000
Personal tech in 2010

The design firm Ideo have come up with their vision of consumer technologies in ten years' time. Lots of good mock-ups and visualisations of what phones, watches, displays, chairs and more might look like. (via Haddock)...

January 28, 2000
The future of the human brain

Raymond Kurzweil discusses the future of the brain and AI over the next century. By 2050 a $1,000 computer will equal the processing power of the world's human brains; nanobots in our brains will enable us to cut off real...

January 25, 2000
Wired's future issue now online

January 2000 issue, 'The Future Gets Fun Again.' Featuring technologies which may become usable realities over the next century: head transplants, holidays in space, teleportation, new cars, nanotech, MEMS, etc. Some good, some dodgy....

January 07, 2000
Stephen Hawking on the future

Much of the article is just about the man himself, but he answers some questions about the possibilities for computers and human brain power in the future, and space travel. (via Slashdot)...

December 29, 1999
A conservative century

Interesting look at how the 21st century could be extremely conservative compared to the largely liberal 20th. Mostly UK-centered. "One could imagine a next century that is dominated by self-righteous puritans, unprepared to pay general taxes to lift the rest...

How much longer do we have?

A look past the next 50 years to what our world could be like in hundreds of years time, and how little we currently understand about the world and ourselves. A ramble including robotics, disasters and how much longer homo...

November 21, 1999
Bay Area 2020

A collection of articles, scenarios and data on what different aspects of the San Francisco Bay Area will be like in 2020....

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