National Intelligence Council's 2020 project

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Two things here. First, Mapping the Global Future, a report on a project geared toward looking at the world in 2020. The full document is available free as web pages or a PDF and is lengthy, solid and pretty detailed. It includes four possible scenarios, which it emphasises aren't exhaustive or mutually exclusive:

  • Davos World provides an illustration of how robust economic growth, led by China and India, over the next 15 years could reshape the globalization process

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here's another way of looking at it:

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050126-wed.html

My group developed a scenario analysis framework (the type made famous by my colleague Eric Best), with the degree of America centricity on one axis and the reaction to it -- either more cooperation among countries or less cooperation -- on the other axis. The four possibilities generated very different worlds...

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