Creating scenarios from thin air

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The Guardian has an article titled 'A vision of Britain in 2020: power cuts and the 3-day week,' outlining an Institution of Civil Engineers (ICE) report. From the article it sounds like one of two things happened. Maybe ICE produced some scenarios exploring the UK's energy future and the newspaper reported only the most dramatic and doom-filled scenario; the media's usual tactic. Or maybe ICE wrote a report predicting a single future, extrapolating from the present day; often a good way to determine what won't actually happen.

In actual fact the article simply rehashes the ICE's own alarmist press release which itself expands on little more than a single speculative paragraph of the 13 page report. I guess shouting "WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!" gets more attention than talking about the current state of the nation's energy and environment (the report's actual focus). (via

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